Settled this week, but how long will drier weather last? | WQ Farming Forecast 2nd March 2021
So this here is the rainfall anomaly as estimated by the radar through meteorological winter, and you can just see how wet it generally has been for most places, particularly down the eastern side of the british isles, particularly northeast england, where many places have seen two. Perhaps almost up to three times their normal rainfall that they would see over the course of winter, so all in all a very wet. Looking month, a lot of these blue colors for most places you can see those some of the high ground areas of the west. So perhaps parts of the high ground of scotland, south west scotland, the lake district, wales, even parts of south west england, are slightly in those brown colours so actually slightly drier than you would normally expect them to be only marginally so, but there is generally the sign There of something slightly drier than expected over these western high ground areas, saying that, though, that is not to say that they’ve had less rainfall, so these two um red dots here just showing going to show a comparison between two uh weather stations. So one down here in lincolnshire and one up here, um in this high ground of scotland, just to emphasize really that although eastern parts have seen uh wetter than normal conditions here, scampton showing 224.6 millimeters as compared to normally close to 140. So wetter than normal. But actually places in the high ground here have seen um just slightly less than norm, but still a huge amount.
More than places further east, although it looks like the eastern side, has been wetter and just to point out that it has just been wetter than average, and actually western areas have still seen as you’d expect for that time of year. Um, the actual greater amounts of rain themselves. So before we look ahead at the forecast. Just a reminder that if you want to the best way of staying on top of the forecast and up to date with any changes and uncertainties in the models, is to speak directly to our forecasters, they’re available every day from 6 am to 6 pm. On the number on screen and they’ll be able to talk you through any questions that you have regarding the forecast and any uncertainties and changes um for the next few days, going forward out to the longer range outlook so well worth a ring. If you’re after a forecast now looking ahead for the next few days, this is the jet stream or lack of the jet stream um over the uk for the next few days. You can see this broad area of high pressure with little or no jet stream activity over the next few days, leading to largely settled conditions. Really. You can see there’s a lot more active jet stream out across the western atlantic, but that’s all moving up um to the west, to the northwest of us, as it gets blocked by this broad area of high pressure that’s over the uk and indeed across much of Western europe, as well so very settled, looking picture for the next few days.
Looking at that in a little bit more detail, this is tuesday evening. You can see high pressure centered down um near italy, and the balkans is ridging across the british isles. There is this little area of low pressure just coming up from the south, which is going to bring some showers on tuesday evening and through wednesday. So this is perhaps the wettest period of this week really and tuesday evening and through wednesday. As these areas of showers move northwards across parts of the midlands and then become centered more over eastern england by wednesday night but elsewhere on wednesday, it’s going to be largely dry quite cloudy again, there’s going to be a lot of persisting, missed fog and low cloud. Even for those places that remain dry, but the best of the sunshine, possibly down um, the western side, parts of western scotland and parts of ireland should see the best of the brightness but elsewhere cloudy and then, of course, these showers for southern areas and some of Them could be on the heavier side. There’S, not it’s, not out of the question that you could see some quite heavy downpours briefly, but they are going to tend to be quite hit and miss. So many areas, even with those showers, may remain largely dry it’s, going to be um, just a question of whether you catch a shower or not so looking ahead, uh through wednesday night and into thursday, this little area of low pressure, the shower rain, is going to Move away to the south, you can see vague hints here of a cold front, moving in from the northeast, but that’s largely just going to bring thicker cloud, maybe a few odd spots of light, rain or drizzle on that to some northern areas, but generally we’ve got This area of high pressure centered over iceland going to move southwards, become more dominant across the uk, so things are going to turn more settled again after that little area of low pressure is cleared, and you can see that moving away here through thursday, a few spots Of drizzle on that cold front before high pressure builds a lot of clear spells on thursday night into friday, down the western side so hard frost for friday morning.
In some western areas, high pressure is then going to build through friday, largely dry conditions. A lot more sunshine, possibly around than in previous days, still some patchy low cloud, lingering mist and fog in places, but those clear spells on friday, night and into saturday are going to allow another fairly widespread, hard frost. So even parts of eastern southern england, central england getting down to minus three minus four degrees on saturday morning, so a very cold night for friday night before then high pressure becomes slightly more centered further south into saturday, so cold again for saturday night into sunday across England and wales, but you can see this front’s just making its way into northwestern areas, so bringing a little bit more in the way of cloud to scotland and island, perhaps less risk of seeing as harder frost still quite chilly. But the coldest temperatures by saturday night are going to be over the central areas of england and wales, where it will be once again, another very cold night um, so that’s the idea of the forecast into the weekend beyond that. Well, it does look like it’s going to turn a little bit more unsettled over the course of next week. This here is an ensemble forecast for pressure and rainfall for coventry, so just a central location in the midlands, just to emphasize the point, but basically over the next few days, you can see this broad area, broad agreement of that fairly strongly built area of high pressure.
There is this slight dip on thursday, wednesday into thursday, with that little area of low pressure, and you can see the associated rainfall here on thursday, the risk of those showers. But generally you can see high pressure being fairly dominant through until the end of the weekend. After which there’s a little bit more uncertainty, you can see. Each of these grey lines is a different member of the ensemble, so a slightly different model run as it goes forward, and you can see the increase in the spread of those models into the early part of next week, and basically the uncertainty is that some models Are trying to bring low pressure in more quickly sunday night into monday? You can see these gray lines here are reducing the pressure more readily into sunday, night and monday. Other models are keeping high pressure, just hanging on in the south and east that little bit longer into the middle part of the week. So that’s, where the uncertainty is really is how long it’s going to stay dry, whether it’s sunday monday tuesday, or whether low pressure pushes in towards the end of sunday and things turn wetter then into the early part of next week. So that’s. The main area of uncertainty, either way after that by wednesday. It looks like we’re going to be much more in a unsettled low pressure dominated regime. You can see low pressure, then being dominant through the rest of that week over the weekend and into the following week.
As well so after that brief period of uncertainty is mainly just a question of how quickly low pressure comes in um, then there’s a good signal for uh for low pressure and indeed associated rainfall uh through the following week. There’S a good signal here in all the models from wednesday onwards, the strongest signal, perhaps monday tuesday. We could see some rainfall as well, so that monday, tuesday period is definitely the one to keep an eye on as to how quickly low pressure tries to push in from the west. So if you’d like to see more detailed forecasts for your location with things like that, as well as your standard 10 day forecast – and indeed then the monthly forecast out for the next four weeks, the best place to find that is our weatherquest farming portal. You can get a two week free trial of this by emailing us at info at weatherquest.co.uk and, like i said, you’ll, be able to access all those forecast informations in the short term and out to the longer range so well worth checking out if you’re after a More detailed forecast for your specific location now looking a little bit further ahead, uh through the following week and indeed out for the rest of march. This here is the mean pressure normally for uh the week, beginning the 8th of march, and you can see how unsettled the picture. This is looking these blue colours, of course, showing below average pressure, so low pressure, dominated regime and blue colours pretty much dominating the whole of europe.
At this point, so much more unsettled week coming up following this high pressure dominated weeks, a real shift in the pattern to something much more unsettled and much wetter as well. These green colors here across most of central europe, into parts of scandinavia down into southern europe as well so widespread wetter than expect the normal week for the following week, uh with low pressure, pushing uh areas of rain and showers um eastwards across much of europe. You can see there are still signs of high pressure ridging in to uh southern iberia and parts of scandinavia as well. But the main story for next week is that it is looking uh rather unsettled for most places in terms of temperatures for the uk we’re going to be just to the northern side of the jet stream. Jet stream is generally going to be around this sort of area, so we’re in some slightly chillier conditions to the northern side of that, but elsewhere across europe. It’S generally going to be that bit milder all these areas of low pressure coming through to the south of them are generally going to have some relatively mild atlantic air tied up in them. So that’s going to spread mild periods of mild air across much of europe, but it might be that the uk itself just stays slightly on the chillier side, closer to average, perhaps slightly below average in places as well. And then you can see below average across scandinavia and parts of western russia as well now into the following week.
It does look like high pressure, might try and rebuild across the western side of you. You can see these pink colors here, showing above average pressure, so signs of slight ridging of high pressure across western europe. But this deep trough over eastern europe is going to continue to bring unsettled, wet and showery conditions for much of eastern and some parts of central and southern europe as well. So an east west split into the following week. You can see that in the rainfall as well wetter than average conditions across eastern europe, perhaps parts of central europe as well and there’s, going to be frequent showers and spells of rain as that trough of low pressure basically sits across eastern europe, but actually further west. With that high pressure ridging in, we might see drier than normal conditions across iberia, france, parts of scandinavia parts of the british isles, close to average, so perhaps slightly drier than normal um. But there may still be a few fronts coming through, especially with high pressure out to the west. We might see some showers coming down the north sea as well, so not completely dry but drier than the previous week um for sure, and this here is the likelihood of seeing a dry day now we showed this before a few times the brown colors, the very High chance of a dry day and those dark green colors, the very low chance of seeing a dry day, so just to run you through the the first couple of weeks.
First we’ve obviously got high pressure building in this week, which is largely going to lead to a good confidence of seeing dry weather um. The only caveat is the showers on wednesday and thursday for southern and eastern areas. That may bring a little bit of rain and then the following week. A real shift to something more unsettled. As we mentioned that slight uncertainty during sunday or monday, where there’s a low chance of either depending on how quickly low pressure pushes in. But then a good signal for wetter than normal conditions and then, as that high potentially builds into the third week of march, we could see some slightly drier weather um for this period. Now. This is quite a weak signal at a minute, there’s, no, very high chances. A few high chances of seeing a dry day so potential there for some slightly dry conditions, but you can see in the north and west it’s, still relatively wet and then further east. We are so further on into the month towards the end of the month. Perhaps turning that bit more unsettled again, so quite a weak signal, but one to keep an eye on. I think for that third week of march now, in terms of temperatures during that third week of march, you can see many places seeing above average temperatures, but there is this um slightly cooler, looking area um across parts of northwestern europe and scandinavia, as with the high Building out to the west um and the low trough of low pressure to the east, we might just draw in some northwesterly flow, which will bring some cooler air to those areas so close to perhaps slightly below average for northwestern europe, but elsewhere generally there’s.
A signal for above average temperatures now into the final week of march a similar pattern to that third week. We’Ve still got high pressure. Trying to ridge in from the west and we’ve still got this trough of low pressure out to the east. But you can see it’s beginning to encroach that little bit further west. The high pressure is not quite as strong a signal so still ridging in at times, but definitely a weaker signal for high pressure during that fourth week of march, and i think this unsettled sort of theme to the weather is going to shift a little bit further. West and you can see that reflected in the rainfall parts of as far west as parts of france, the low countries, even eastern parts of the british isles, may see slightly above average rainfall and especially further east as well it’s, going to stay pretty wet and showery. For those places the driest looking areas are iberia and scandinavia, and perhaps the very western parts of the british isles, with high pressure at times just ridging in but the further east you are in the british isles. It might be just that that little bit wetter, so perhaps a return to something again slightly more unsettled for that final week of march, in terms of temperatures with high pressure to the west and that trough of low pressure to the east we’re still going to be In that northwesterly flow, so you can see northern and western europe in that cooler, cooler air coming in from the northwest, so below average temperatures for much of northern and western europe, but it looks like it might stay just that bit milder further south those red colors.
There showing something slightly warmer or milder than you would expect um for the time of year, so the bit of a bit of a north south split for that uh last week of march. So to summarize this week, it’s going to be largely high pressure dominated much of the time it’s going to be dry, just those showers on wednesday and thursday to watch out, for it will turn colder towards the weekend, with generally less in the way of low clouds. So clearer skies leaving some pretty hard frosts, as well as getting that cooler air mass coming in from the north, so a colder trend towards the weekend before. It then turns wetter and more unsettled into the following week, as the atlantic tries to push more areas of low pressure through so more changeable and more unsettled into the following week. But then perhaps turning slightly drier again the week after that into that third and perhaps even the fourth week of march, although this still remains some uncertainty out to that time scale so up and down a little bit. There is some drier periods and some wetter periods, but it looks like we might have a little bit of everything over the next few weeks. So thanks for watching this week’s video, as ever, if you’ve got any questions, you can follow us and ask them on social media. You can leave them in the comments below and don’t forget.