From one extreme to another… | WQ Farming Forecast 30th March 2021
So i thought we’d start off this week’s video by taking a look at the soil temperature across east anglo. Jest to 10 centimeter soil temperature and there’s a lot of lines on this graph, so we’ll explain them all a bit quickly. So you can see this dark pink line here, that’s the average so far this year for marum, which is a station in north norfolk, nie ma, a red line here, which is the average for marham over the last 20 roku, or so just to give something for a Comparison to and then there’s a spread of the highest and lowest results there as well, just to give us an idea of what’s normal for this time of year. So i thought we’d take a look back so starting off with january. This was quite a cool month. Temperatures were below average for much of the month and therefore soil temperatures below average for much of the month too. You can see here, but as we go into the second part of january, things did turn a little bit milder. We had a few milder interludes there and that shows in the soil temperatures as well then going into the first week of february. The first week was quite mild as well, but you can see plummeting as we went into the second week of february and we had the return of the beast from the east into the second part of february. Things did pick up actually um and places did become almost exceptionally mild for the time of year and resulting in above average soil temperatures for then as well, ale potem, looking towards march closer to where we are now it’s been a bit of a mixed bag.
W tym miesiącu, it’s been quite settled for much of the time. We’Ve had high pressure close by, but there have been some unsettled periods in there as well. Ogólnie, temperatures have been close to if not slightly above average and that’s the same with the soil temperatures. Here too, they are close to the red line, if not slightly above at times, you can just see towards the end of the period here, a slight drop off, and that was about 10 days or so ago, when we had some north to north easterly winds. So things did get a bit cooler there for a time and unfortunately, at this point the maram station stopped recording soil temperature for a brief time. So i’ve put this green line on for watershem, which is a nearby station in suffolk. Just to give us an idea of what things have done over the last 10 days or so, and you can see that has picked back up it’s now sort of close to, if not just above that red average line so we’re about average. For the time of year – and i imagine over the last day or so when it’s been quite warm, we’ll have had a marked improvement on this as well, but what’s set to continue over the next couple days is quite critical at this time of year. So let’s take a look at the forecast, we’ll start off with the jet stream, which is actually mainly sort of going to the north of europe and that’s stirring areas of low pressure towards scandinavia, where things are wet and average there at the moment.
But generally you can see that we’re sort of in this area of high pressure more settled. The jet stream generally sort of steering around us. So we’re allowed to stay more settled, there’s a few areas of jet out in the atlantic sort of spinning up a few little areas of low pressure, but generally not coming towards us as we stay under this area of high pressure with areas of low pressure. Generally tracking to the north, so starting off with this current setup, then you can see we’ve got high pressure over the continent over there, and that is helping to keep things settled for us ridging in towards britain, keeping things nice and settled. jednak, we have got low pressure and a cold front across northern areas and that’s been bringing some quite persistent rain to parts of scotland for a time and as we go into tonight, i think that rain is set to persist, but elsewhere it’s looking to be quite Settled with clear spells overnight and mostly dry, although the risk of a few mist and fog patches, perhaps in the southwest, and that little spell of rain sort of slightly slipping southwards, into parts of ireland now into tomorrow. We do have the risk of a few very isolated showers across parts of england, most likely across the midlands, but these are due to be very isolated. So i imagine most places will be largely dry with plenty of sunshine and feeling quite warm as well, with maximum temperatures up to 23 lub 24 stopni Celsjusza.
Jest to, really only that area of low pressure, that’s moving out to the west, and we might see some flows of rain in scotland or ireland at times, but elsewhere staying largely dry and then, as we go into thursday. We’Ve still got sort of the lingering front. It’S somewhere around here somewhere across southern scotland, northern england, but it’s weakened so much. You can’t really see much rain left on that it’s really just cloud at the moment and as we go through thursday, that is likely to slip southwards and what you can’t see in rain. It will bring a drop in temperature, so that is a cold front. Introducing some colder air till many places, tak, although we’ve got high pressure around and the day will stay mostly dry for some places, it will start to feel cooler as we see a sort of north to northeasterly flow, developing so starting to feel cooler for thursday and Then, into friday we have got that risk of frost at first, obviously with those cooler temperatures so be mindful for the possibility of some frost on friday morning, but otherwise, through friday and into the weekend. We have got high pressure close by, and that is helping to keep things generally settled. So most places will be dry variable cloud, occasional, sunny spells but feeling cooler as that north to north easterly flow continues to persist through the weekend and again saturday morning carries the risk of frost as well and feeling cooler.
So if you’re looking to do some spraying, it looks good for you without high pressure generally around for much of the time. We’Ve got a lot of green colors on the map, those green colors showing the ideal spraying conditions so light winds and dry conditions. You can see a lot of the green colors on the map, but as that north to northeasterly flow develops, maybe some southeastern parts starting to get a bit breezy at times, so not so good, if you’re here, but for the rest of the country with high pressure. Close by it’s, looking pretty good and as always, if you’re after more information on the forecast, something a bit more detailed. If you’ve got some questions about things that you’re trying to get done on your farm, the place to go is our forecast hotline just call 0065. 777675 and we’re here between 6am and 6pm every day, always happy to talk to you. The calls cost one pound 55 minute plus network access charges. Więc, jak powiedziałem, we come back to the temperatures and this is the temperature trend for leicester and, as you can see at the start of the week so today and tomorrow into wednesday it’s. Looking pretty mild. Jak powiedziałem, temperatures up to widely up to 20 degrees celsius across much of england and wales, but you know up to 23 lub 24 possible in a few places, so quite mild. But you can see it dropping there as we go towards thursday and indeed friday and the rest of the easter weekend, so starting to feel a bit cooler as that cold front brings us some milk, some cooler air from thursday – and you can see too, with the The cold temperatures the minimum temperatures there, starting to get a bit closer to the zero degree line so indicating we might have that risk of frost as we go towards the weekend and you can see into sort of the first part of next week.
Not really much improvement, temperatures maximum temperatures generally in the high tens and the low teens, while minimum temperatures will be close to freezing at times overnight. So there will be a risk of frost and i think it will feel quite chilly in places next week. Więc, in terms of the weather forecast, we’re showing an ensemble here and an ensemble forecast, is where we run our models several times with different starting conditions, just to get a spread of how things could look in the coming week. So if you want to find out more about ensemble forecasting, just click the link up here but we’ll start with the pressure ensemble, Jak widać, it’s quite high, so um at the start of the week with high pressure close by for much of the time. But as we go towards the end of the easter weekend, sort of sunday night into easter monday, we have got another cold front sort of starting to push southwards across britain, and this will result in falling pressure for many places so becoming more unsettled. That front starting to push into sort of northern areas, so parts of scotland on easter sunday perhaps bring sort of rain, sleet and snow to many places and then moving further south through eastern monday there. So a further risk of rain and sleet, perhaps even snow for some places through eastern monday and then generally continuing to be unsettled through much of the week ahead as well.
So you can expect further spells of rain. Perhaps some sleet and snow mixed in there as well taking a look at the air mass temperature. You can see very warm at the start of the week when we’ve had this nice warm and sunny weather going from sort of thursday kind of time and that cold front comes through, things will drop off a little bit, but that second cold front coming through sunday Night into monday, bringing a real drop in those temperatures in the air mass temperature, so it’s feeling really quite cold below average temperatures for next week. Although there is a fair spread, most of the models are going for a cooler than average scenario so expecting it to be quite unsettled and quite chilly at times next week. But just as we look towards the end, you can see things sort of starting to pick up and both the pressure and the temperature, so maybe some light at the end of the tunnel taking a look at our monthly forecast, then this is for next week for Week two and you can see they’re really in support of a more unsettled week with these blue colors, indicating below average pressure, so unsettled conditions likely for many places, and you can see that reflected in the precipitation anomaly as well. A lot of green colors over the map here so indicating things will be wet and average particularly sort of um along sort of eastern and central areas in that north to northeasterly flow at times, but further in towards southeastern europe.
Things will be drier under an area of high pressure here, temperature wise, a lot of those blue colors across the map, so supporting the idea that it will be quite chilly as we go into next week, while southeastern parts of europe do stay in those red colors. So turning to be above average temperatures here as we go into week, Trzy, maybe a brief respite is sort of signaled. Here you can see those red colors for above average pressure kind of signaling, maybe a return, maybe some ridges of high pressure close to iceland ridging in from the northwest into britain, or some high pressure building over the continent and ridging up from the southeast. So the potential for some ridges of high pressure at times, but low pressure not too far away. So i think there’ll still be spells of rain at times still some areas of low pressure, but maybe slightly more settled as we go into week. Three and you can see it’s a pretty mixed bag um across much of europe really sort of drier than average still in the southeast. Well elsewhere is a bit more mixed, but generally wetter than average. Więc, although we might have ridges of high pressure at times generally, most places will have above average rainfall temperature wise a bit a bit of a brief return into these milder than average temperatures. A lot of these pink colors over the map, generally only in sort of southern parts of britain, while elsewhere in britain, it stays closer to average, maybe even slightly colder than average in northwestern parts at times and then into week.
Cztery, Niestety, those blue colors do indicate a bit of a more a return into a more unsettled pattern. Looks like we’ll have a trough of low pressure, centered somewhere over scandinavia and that’s likely to bring us fairly unsettled weather to britain. So i think we could see occasional spells of showery rain while further south across southern europe. It does look to be a little bit more settled. Pressure will be higher over here again reflected in the precipitation, normally lots of green colors across northern parts, and there is a bit mixed, there’s some whites in there as well, even a few areas of brown indicating drier than average conditions so a bit of a mixed Bag as we go into week, Cztery, while further south generally more of those brown colors indicating drier than average conditions temperature wise, those those pink colors for the above average temperatures generally retreating to southern areas too. While i think we could potentially turn cooler than average again as we go into week, Cztery, particularly across northern parts, so to summarise over the next day or so, it will feel largely dry, sunny and very warm highs up to 23 lub 24 degrees celsius tomorrow. But as we go into thursday and that cold front moves southwards, we will see some cold air returning so feeling a bit chillier from thursday and those north to northeasterly, winds, developing and with that cold air comes the risk of a few frosty mornings too.
As we go into the weekend now towards the end of easter, so easter sunday into easter monday, we have got that second cold front moving southwards. That could bring some rain sleet or snow to many places and following on from that, it will remain unsettled and quite cold into that following week, so expect further risks of frost at times towards mid april. There is a vague signal that we might see something a little bit more settled some respite possible, but i think, as we go further ahead, it does look like it will become unsettled again.