Further frosty nights, but with more rain on the horizon | WQ Farming Forecast 17th April 2021
Some parts of the uk are close to seeing a record breaking number of frosts uh for april, so it’s been astoundingly cold over the last month or so it’s been particularly dry as well. We have seen a lot of dry weather around many places, seeing little rainfall over the course of the month. So this here is the rainfall and normally for april, up until yesterday, up until the 26th of may – and i know many of you don’t – need telling how dry it has been, but this just does emphasize how widely this dry weather has affected the uk. These dark orange to dark brown colours, showing something like five to ten percent of the normal amount of rainfall that you would expect to see in april uh for these locations so widely. Seeing that much rainfall and it’s been incredibly dry for much of the uk, northern scotland is the one place that has seen slightly wetter conditions. You can see these blue colours here showing slightly above average, but it really is a contrast to much of the rest of the uk, where it has been uh well below average and incredibly dry um for for most places and and with that uh dry weather as Well, we’ve seen a lot of clear skies um overnight we’ve seen some northerly winds and northeasterly winds, which have brought some quite cold air across the british arts. So we’ve seen a quite a cold april as well like say in some places and there’s been close to a record number of frosty nights in april.
East anglia, for example, so far, has had um 18 air frosts and air frost in one place on 18 different nights, which is its joint record, and i think, with the next couple of days, there’s potential for that to break it and become the frostiest april. On record for east anglia, so it’s been very cold um for the last month or so, and there is the risk of frost going forward for the rest of this week and perhaps into the early part of next week as well. So this graph here shows the likelihood of a frost generally, temperatures below one or two degrees have the potential to give a touch of grass or ground frost. Obviously, when you get below zero that’s a full blown air frost, but there is the risk below kind of low single figure. So this is is indicating that risk um for below kind of two or three degrees, and you can see generally over the next few days. There’S, a fairly widespread risk of seeing a frost and some clear skies. This cool northeasterly flow that’s going to affect the british isles even into the early part of next week. Some places could continue to see the risk of frost it’s well worth staying on top of the forecast for temperatures overnight, temperatures over the next few days, um if it’s something that you’re particularly concerned of as there is definitely the risk there of seeing another week to 10 days, or so of some some frosty nights in places, so what’s happening over the next few days, generally the the overall picture.
Well, this was during tuesday we had this area of low pressure sliding southwards, across the british isles, bringing some quite heavy showers some rain in places before then that moves away to the east during the end of the week, then we’re into this quite slack pressure pattern For thursday, friday saturday and into sunday quite a weak northeasterly flow, so not a huge amount going on in the large scale weather systems, but there could be quite a lot of slow moving showers, develop perhaps turning heavy and thundery in places so it’s worth keeping an Eye on those showers um, there is the risk really for most places at some point. During the end of the week, i’ve seen something a little bit more showery. So looking at that in a little bit more detail, this was tuesday. We saw that area of low pressure slide southwards, across the british isles, bringing some quite heavy showers in the west, some patchier rain, uh further east um by the end of tuesday that’s going to be out to the south. You can see the focus a lot of this heavy rain and showers is going to be across wales. Parts of the midlands parts of southern and south west england, overnight into wednesday, is when things do get a little bit trickier. So we’ve got this area of low pressure that’s spreading southwards. In a way meeting this area of low pressure, which has developed in spain, parts of southern france and begun to spread northwards and the way these interact with each other basically means this area of rain becomes slow moving, begins to then move eastwards across southern england.
Parts of east anglia before then pulling away on thursday um into the north sea and across the low country, so it’s going to be a little bit tricky. I think over the next few days, until closer to pinned down the exact track of this rain, but basically on wednesday. This is the area that’s most at risk. Wales, uh, the midlands, south west england, then moving further east into parts of eastern england. Out of into the north sea – and there is potential for this to be a little bit further north west, so don’t take this too literally. Some different models have this further east. Some different models have this area of rain further west, so there’s a little bit of leeway. I think there for, for some other places to see a little bit more rainfall uh during wednesday and wednesday night elsewhere, we’re into this cooler northwesterly with a scattering of showers. Turning wintry over the high ground in scotland and perhaps parts of northern england as well, but most of this rainfall will be concentrated further south now in terms of amounts for this rainfall, particularly through wednesday, when we’ve got that area of heavy rain and showers in parts Of wales, the midlands and southwest england now this is four different models that we look at here at weatherquest and it’s, just basically to give give you an idea of how variable this rainfall is going to be so. This is the 24 hour rainfall accumulations over the course of wednesday, from midnight through until midnight and basically just to point out.
The focus in all these models is having the rain um across wales southwest england and parts of southern england. For that period, you can see some places, look like they’re going to get something like 15 to 25 millimeters of rain, which is plausible, but you can see that the tricky issue is where exactly that’s going to be so most places in this area. Have that risk? Not all places are going to see that, because there’s going to be quite a showery element to this, some heavier bursts that not everywhere is going to see. So if you’re, looking at a forecast with rainfall amounts, perhaps don’t take it too literally during wednesday, as anywhere in this sort of area, does have the potential um to see something heavier. So this is just to emphasize how how kind of variable that might be, and the the amounts are going to be quite variable from place to place, depending on whether you catch a say, a couple of heavy showers or not or whether you miss out on the Heavier stuff, and actually, as you can see, some places may end up with with less than five mil, not too far away from somewhere that sees um 15 to 20 ml, so quite spatially variable um through wednesday. The rainfall, but just that to kind of point out how different it might end up being from place to place now into thursday. That low pressure should clear. Any rain in eastern england should clear through the morning on thursday, as that pulls away into the baltic states and around the baltic sea.
Then the rest of the uk is left in this cool showery northeasterly flow. You can see daytime afternoon showers and developing and drifting southwestward, so most places have the risk of seeing showers mainly down the western side of the uk and ireland, where some might be heavy, perhaps thundery in places, and there is with clear skies generally developing overnight. We’Re going to see the risk of frost developing from wednesday night in the west, but then thursday, night friday, night saturday, night for elsewhere quite widely under those clear skies, um, so gon na be quite hit and miss in terms of rainfall. But there is the uh chance of showers to watch out for, and i think, with this kind of hit and miss um rainfall um shower risk. The best way of staying on top of the chance of for your particular location of seeing a shower is to speak directly to one of our forecasters. They’Re available every day from 6am to 6pm on 0965.7675 and they’ll be able to talk you through the particular shower risk for your location. For a given time, the amount of rain you might likely see the variability of that rainfall uh. What the likelihood of is of seeing the heavier totals so well worth giving them a call, if you’d like a little bit more detail for your location, now, looking ahead a bit further forward in terms of rainfall, this is the ensemble forecast for rainfall just taking cambridge As an example, through the next 10 days or so, and you can see over the next few days, we’ve got this fairly obvious diurnal cycle of these showers and these spikes in the afternoon indicating kind of developing showers um in places.
But there does look to be a bit more of a general risk of rain uh through next week. Now. Obviously this is a little bit messy in terms of a lot of these different model. Runs are doing something slightly different, but generally the gist of next week is that we might see some areas of low pressure pushing from the west, which could give some more organized bands of rainfall as opposed to the kind of hit hit and miss shower risk. I think there is a more likely chance of seeing um some more persistent and perhaps prolonged rainfall uh through next week next week, which i guess will be welcome news for many people that are after rainfall, um, so yeah, perhaps a more uh, unsettled and changeable week. Next week, with uh a bit more in the way of rainfall, um on the cards now looking a bit further ahead. This is the graphic of of the likelihood of seeing a dry day uh for a number of different regions here down the west, uh down the left hand, side um out to the next three or four weeks or so now, it’s, not particularly useful. I think in the short term, with this uh shower risk, as you can see, it’s quite variable, depending on where the focus of the showers is. But i think that the main the key point to take away from this is by by next week, there’s a bit more of a wider uh, less likelihood of seeing a dry day so more likely of seeing some rainfall as things do turn a bit more unsettled From the west, the atlantic has a bit more of an influence, uh much more likely in the north and west, where a lot of these fronts will be heavier, but even further south um.
It does look like there will be a little bit more rain around for most places during next week, so hints are becoming more unsettled uh through next week. You can see beyond that. We go back to seeing a few drier colors here, um as it does, that, like high pressure, might then ridge in from the south for the for the kind of second and third week of may so still front’s bringing a kind of wetter signal across northern and Western areas, but perhaps then turning drier again um in the south as that high pressure dampens some of that rain, so there will possibly still be rain around as those fronts come through, but it will be kind of weaker than it is further north and west. With the the high kind of killing off a lot of the uh, the heavier rainfall, now that just shows the kind of likelihood of seeing uh a rain on any given day. Will it be significant rain? Well, this is the a similar graphic showing the likelihood of seeing some significant rain so on any given day, that’s a sort of five mil or more um chance, and you can see much of northern and western britain is where that that likelihood of seeing something a Bit more significant is um there’s, a very low chance of seeing a lot of heavy rain um on any given day um in the in the south um and some some eastern areas, um, but still the chance of rain and particularly in the north and west, is Where those those heavier totals are going to be during that week, two and perhaps week three and week four period now in terms of temperatures, it is going to stay fairly cold.
Although it’s going to become more unsettled next week, it might turn a little bit mild that we do lose the risk of air frost generally, it is going to be below average. You can see a strong signal through this week and this weekend in this northeasterly flow of being well below average uh for the rest of the period. Well, northern and western areas are likely to stay below average in a cool north or developing northwesterly flow through the remainder or into the early and middle parts of may so staying below average in the north and west. There is potential, particularly during tuesday and wednesday next week, as some of these areas of low pressure come through. They might draw in some milder air for a time, so actually it could be above average for a couple of days in a few places at times during next week. But generally then it is below average again through the rest of the period across southern britain and southern ireland as well, so a brief kind of milder period possible in places. But generally, i think the main story is that the outlook for the next three or four weeks for most places is going to be somewhat cooler um than you’d expect for the time of year. So, to summarize that remaining cooler than average for much of the forecast period, although, like i say there will be those brief milder incursions at times in the south through the early part of next week, associated with low pressure with low pressure, also becomes the potential for A bit more rainfall through next week, so next week’s, the best bet, i think, of seeing some, perhaps more persistent rain.
Before then into the following couple of weeks. High pressure will attempt to build from the south leading to something slightly drier than average as well again. So next week’s, looking like the most unsettled in terms of the risk of frost well that continues through this week into the weekend in some places for the early part of next week before then, it should hopefully turn mild. So if that is something you’re concerned about it’s, definitely worth staying on top of the forecast and keeping an eye on the overnight temperatures for the next seven to ten days or so, um there’s definitely the risk of seeing something frosty uh during that period. So thanks for watching this week’s video, as ever, you can keep up to date with uh the day to day forecast for stanley and the british isles on our social media, and you can leave any comments that you’d like below.